I’ve just finished reading an interesting article which seeks to make a point of identifying winners and losers in the recent political foul-play that is the Georgian crisis. I particularly liked the idea that  a war is no longer won on the battlefield (was it ever?) and that the strength of the western media has had an overbearing impact on the way the conflict is portrayed.

But I disagree with the “winner” being the U.S. Russia are, in my eyes, the clear winners (again there are no winners, but you know what I mean). Russia was able to openly invade a U.S ally, in eastern Europe. Without reactions harsher than half-baked threats and rhetoric. They achieved what they set out to do, they oiled a decaying and rusty military ensemble, and finally, limited the amount of negative feedback in the media by abiding to a cease-fire (on the surface — at least) and showing the world they are no longer the Soviet Union. Quelling fears of another Cold-War crisis. It’s easy to forgive an invasion when you are relieved that the waters seem to be calmer than they could have been.

Russia also managed to show that it is a superpower, that is listens to the world community but will act unilaterally (much like the U.S). It also showed that it can and will intervene. A stark warning for both European and American interests in the area.

At the end of the day Georgia was just a pretext. The military “victory” is meaningless. As sad as the loss of life and destruction is, it is merely a smoke-screen for the reshuffling of queens on a chess-board, with the variation yet to be played out.

The Georgian-Russian-Abkhaz crisis is a muddled mess. Aside from the problem of defining some kind of ‘justified’ party (Russia is a superpower, Georgia the spunky ‘democracy’ which regularly shells Russia, Abkhazia the rebels that Georgia also regularly shells), it seems that the country which was repeatedly portrayed as ‘heroic’ in the western media is about to be dropped.

President Bush’s remarks on Monday may be some of the cleverest he has ever made (and that’s saying very much). He generally condemned Russia, saying there would be consequences if they continued upon this course of action. This is all boilerplate stuff - nothing truly exciting. However, there was one very interesting phrase: “We strongly condemn bombing outside of South Ossetia” (Thank you Al Jazeera). Bush has therefore given tacit approval of what he calls Russia’s ‘aggression’, as long as it does not extend beyond South Ossetia - the point at which the Russians wanted to contain their actions anyhow.

Another interesting aspect of this encounter is the reaction of Abkhazia - an apparently Russian-backed independent republic within Georgia. If anything, this region of Georgia should also have the support of the western world - after all, it is a secessionist democracy of the finest tradition. Their taking advantage of the situation is being seen as having a negative effect on Georgia, which is now fighting a ‘two-front’ war (Thank you BBC).

Russia, meanwhile, has ‘ended‘ its involvement in Georgia, at the threat of EU intervention. It seems to be rather ironic and hypocritical that the EU and the US (as well as Israel) may randomly attack nations to promote their own ‘security‘ while Russia, which was being shelled on a regular basis, is not permitted to do the same. I do not support any of Russia’s actions in this case - it just seems they are significantly more justifiable than those of the ‘West’ in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Georgia’s aggression against Russia was unfounded and went unpunished by the international community for years. Russia’s reaction is natural, and surprisingly restrained. Consider that the new ‘Russia’ (ie. not the USSR) has been a fairly peaceful power, focused more on internal politics and development than external power. Their quick retreat has furthermore shown them to value good relations with the EU more than punishment of a neighboring state that is attacking them.

Condemning their actions while perpetrating far worse is only hypocrisy. Perhaps working more closely together with Russia and Georgia to solve their differences would be the correct path, and would win allies in the process. Perhaps it is time to throw away all the Cold War ideology and propaganda and focus on a country that has vast natural resources and is seeking allies.